This fall we will be bringing out Independence without Freedom: Iran’s Foreign Policy, in which one of the great commentators on modern Iran, R. K. Ramazani, summarizes six decades of political history in this volatile and important nation. With the election this summer of a new president, Ramazani has several important questions about the future of Iran and the promises made by its new leader.

Hassan Rouhani’s surprise landslide victory in Iran’s elections astounded Iranians, Americans, and much of the world. In his victory speech, he claimed he would travel the road to “moderation.” What does this mean? Is he a “mianeh ro” or “e’tedal,” meaning middle of the road or just man, or alternatively, is he simply against extremism? If so, is he a “centrist” and “pragmatist,” responding flexibly to different situations, or is he, as he has been called, “the diplomatic sheikh”?

To put it differently, is he a follower of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who, during his presidency in 1989-1997, sought little conflict with the West and catered to the governments in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia? Or is Rouhani remembering Rafsanjani for making room for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to ascend to the role of the Supreme Leader of Iran? At the time, I called Rafsanjani and Khamenei the riders of a “docharkheh-e donafari,” that is, riding a bicycle made for two.

Alternatively, is Rouhani trying to follow Mohammad Khatami, who created room for détente with the world in 1997-2005, made the world a safer place for the people of Iran by giving them a modicum of individual liberty and freedom of speech, and committed himself to a “dialogue among civilizations” throughout the world?

There is little doubt that the people who supported Rafsanjani and Khatami cast their vote massively in favor of Rouhani. The confrontational policies of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005-2013 damaged the people of Iran. He claimed at the outset that “America needs us,” not the other way around. Rouhani criticized Ahmadinejad for his “careless, uncalculated and unstudied remarks,” such as his threat to wipe Israel off the map and his denial of the Holocaust. He indirectly blamed the influence of extremists and radicals on the poor relationship between Iran and major powers of the world.

Finally, what has he said about “moderation”? In a series of speeches, he has tried to explain what he means by this term, mentioned in the New York Times only in one paragraph on June 30. This neglect in the Times and elsewhere in the Western press is unfortunate, since Rouhani has spelled out what he means: “Moderation in foreign policy means neither submission nor hostility, neither passiveness nor confrontation. Moderation is active and constructive interaction with the world.”

Since the birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iranian presidents have pursued an overall aspirational paradigm that I call “spiritual pragmatism,” embodying two conflicting elements. President Rouhani has elaborated. He says, “Moderation covers a wide spectrum. It begins with belief and convictions and leads to norms, behavior and action. It begins with economic and political affairs and leads to social and cultural issues.”

Rouhani’s views exemplify spiritual pragmatism, which begins with belief and convictions, spirituality, and leads to norms, behavior, and action, pragmatism. But they also reflect a contradiction that has not yet been resolved in Iran’s foreign policy. At the time of the adoption of the Iranian Constitution, there was tension over whether the rights of the people would be given the greatest priority or the rights of the faqih, and this conflict persists in Rouhani’s statements.

By covering decades of Iranian foreign policy decisions, my new book investigates what I call Independence without Freedom: Iran’s Foreign Policy. I try to place Iran’s foreign policy in the context of what I call “diplomatic culture,” defined as those values, norms, mores, institutions, modes of thinking, and ways of acting that have developed over centuries, have survived change, and continue to shape Iran’s foreign policy making to date. Rouhani might aspire to combine spirituality and pragmatism, but like his predecessors, he will be entangled in the endemic, unresolved problem of choosing between the right of the people and the right of the faqih.

R.K. Ramazani is Edward R. Stettinius Professor Emeritus of Government and Foreign Affairs. His forthcoming book is Independence without Freedom: Iran’s Foreign Policy.